A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
For an understanding of how Iran's leadership in Tehran is likely to view these developments, we've called up Karim Sadjadpour. He's an Iran expert and policy analyst at the Carnegie Institute for International Peace. He's on the line with us now. So what do you think is the likelihood that an end to this conflict can be brought about in the coming days?
KARIM SADJADPOUR: There's virtually zero chance that an end to this conflict can be brought about in the coming days. This is a revolutionary government in Tehran, which in some ways has been resuscitated by the war. Before the war, I used to refer to the Islamic Republic of Iran as a zombie regime because it had a dying ideology with dying legitimacy and a dying supreme leader. And the war has somewhat resuscitated these revolutionaries, and they are committed to resistance against the United States. They're committed to revenge against President Trump. And they've shown themselves to be quite resilient. So I don't see - I don't expect that they're going to stop fighting any time soon.
MARTÍNEZ: So more of a long game for Iran. But I - you know, I saw a tweet you made a little while back where you said that President Trump may have been looking for a knockout punch to end the war. Is such a thing possible for President Trump?
SADJADPOUR: So indeed, I think President Trump is looking for a quick exit, either in the form of a knockout punch that he can punch the Islamic Republic into submission or a deal. And he's been unsuccessful at both.
I think those who are hoping for a knockout punch - one example they cite is that United States could either destroy or seize Kharg Island, which is perhaps Iran's most critical economic artery for - it's an oil export terminal from which 90% of Iran's oil flows. But as you heard in the previous segment, Iran has threatened that if United States were to do that, it would destroy oil and gas facilities throughout the Persian Gulf. And that was - that's the reason why President Trump has continuously threatened to take Kharg Island or bomb it, but then backed down when our Gulf partners ask us not to do that.
MARTÍNEZ: So the knockout punch is something that may be threatened, but not actually there to go grab.
SADJADPOUR: Indeed.
MARTÍNEZ: OK. The current situation, Karim - what do you think is different now from the last time Trump announced talks were happening? Let's - do us a calculation for either side.
SADJADPOUR: So the Islamic Republic is certainly hurting because, as a result of this naval blockade, the country is losing approximately $450 million daily. So we don't hear from the plight of 90 million Iranians who are really struggling, but it's a regime which is - has dug in. It currently controls the streets. And at the moment they're trying to figure out a mechanism through which they can continue to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz. And the other key thing for President Trump is, can he get Iran to compromise on its nuclear ambitions? And as of now there are no signs that it's a regime prepared to give up - meaningfully give up its nuclear ambitions.
MARTÍNEZ: Does this on-again, off-again approach by the president matter to Iran?
SADJADPOUR: You know, what it signals, I think, from Washington to Tehran, is there is a lack of resolve. There's a lack of strategy. There's an incoherence. And so I think Iran is going to continue to - Iran has been consistent in its ideology of resistance. They want to humiliate Trump internally. They believe this war is very unpopular with the American people. And I think one signpost the regime is waiting on are the midterm elections in the hope that, you know, the midterm elections are only going to further weaken President Trump and force him to end this conflict quickly.
MARTÍNEZ: I was going to ask you about that - whether Iran is looking at the calendar as well. And you seem to think that, yes, they are very much aware of that calendar coming up in November.
SADJADPOUR: So going back to Iran's 1979 Islamist revolution and the hostage crisis, which effectively ended the presidential campaign - reelection campaign of Jimmy Carter, Iran's revolutionaries have really sought to manipulate and game U.S. internal politics. And I do think that's a priority here.
MARTÍNEZ: Quickly - really quick - Israel has not said much about this pending deal Trump speaks of. How important is Israel's support here?
SADJADPOUR: Well, I think Israel is dismayed that President Trump's instincts are not to try to end this conflict quickly. But the reality is domestic public opinion is going to be far more important for the president than Israeli point of view.
MARTÍNEZ: Karim Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Karim, thank you very much.
SADJADPOUR: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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